"The distribution of rainfall is exceedingly potholed surrounded by India."?
support the statement with three suitable examples from different parts of the country.
Answers: THE total seasonal rainfall during the year's southwest monsoon (June 1 to September 30) for the country as a adjectives was 99 per cent of its long-period average (LPA), which, mortal within plus or minus 10 per cent of the LPA, can be term as a `normal' monsoon. However, both spatial and temporal distributions have be skewed this year, and as a result the country is faced near the unusual situation of a large defect of as much as 17 per cent in the northeastern region (see "Changing patterns", Frontline, October 6). The appearance of `normal' rainfall be owing to the excess rainfall (116 per cent of LPA) over central India (see table). Are these segment of changing trends within the rainfall pattern over the country? Monsoon performing in the subsequent few years might bear this out.
Interestingly, this year's cut-out is a repeat of last year's: a total rainfall of 99 per cent of the LPA accompany by deficit rainfall in the northeastern region. However, indications are that the meteorological conditions creating this be more similar to those observed in 1994 than 2005. That is, the usual `break condition' surrounded by August that brings copious rains to the northeastern States be absent. The `monsoon trough' be anchored south off its typical position; this resulted in excess rainfall over medium India and deficit rainfall over States at higher latitude, especially Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the northeastern States.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, seasonal rainfall was not up to standard in 10, beside five of them (Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana) experiencing `moderate drought' conditions (deficit of 25-50 per cent). It was surrounded by excess (more than 120 per cent of the subdivisional LPA) in six and majority (minus 119 per cent to plus 119 per cent of the LPA) in 20. The excess subdivisions (western Rajasthan, the Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch and inside Maharashtra, Orissa and Jammu and Kashmir) were first and foremost in the west, which points to the inconsistent spatial distribution this year. Of the 533 districts, rainfall was not good enough (more than 19 per cent deficit) in 209, of which 130 face moderate drought conditions (26-50 per cent deficit) and 30 experienced `severe drought' conditions (51 per cent or more deficit).
The temporal or monthly distribution for the country as a whole be somewhat abnormal. Though the June rainfall simply contributes about one-fifth of the monsoon rainfall, this year it fell short of the LPA by 13 per cent, contained by spite of the good rainfall contained by the first week (see bar chart on facing page). The week-to-week progression shows that a voluminous deficiency occur from the second to the fourth week of June as well as July (the latter contributes in the order of one-third of the monsoon rainfall). The excess during the first two weeks of August brought rains simply to central India, robbing the northern and northeastern regions of their usual quantum. In reality, during the entire season, the cumulative rainfall remained below its LPA except for the first week of June. By the fourth week of July, the cumulative deficit was 14 per cent, which subsequently enhanced to give an overall deficit of 1 per cent at the stop of the season.
The long-range forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in April have put the seasonal rainfall at 93 per cent of the LPA with plus or minus 5 per cent model error. This be updated in June to be 92 per cent of the LPA next to a possible error of plus or minus 4 per cent. The actual rainfall of 99 per cent was significantly beyond the error lump.
The predictions with good opinion to the four homogeneous rainfall regions of the country were similarly sour the mark. Rainfall be expected to be 91 per cent over northwestern India, 90 per cent over central India, 94 per cent over northeastern India and 97 per cent over the southern peninsula. The regional predictions have a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent. In terms of the actual rainfall of 94 per cent, 116 per cent, 83 per cent and 95 per cent respectively within the four regions, the forecast for Central and northeastern India were bad.
R. Ramachandran
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